Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-03 219.765180 265.641296 321.898667 397.061963 496.565037 6.262983e+02 8.125934e+02
2025-08-10 163.895847 215.960957 287.759978 397.586715 568.265988 8.365629e+02 1.320783e+03
2025-08-17 130.481414 182.077469 259.156491 389.077917 617.194011 1.034999e+03 1.960790e+03
2025-08-24 108.530144 157.978257 236.419284 379.022658 655.614429 1.233847e+03 2.788307e+03
2025-08-31 92.833813 139.667486 217.586614 368.274608 686.327241 1.434705e+03 3.860837e+03
2025-09-07 87.283599 136.316139 222.477953 401.728908 821.441241 1.972854e+03 6.848987e+03
2025-09-14 79.009155 126.727990 213.963732 405.570414 891.624978 2.403193e+03 1.056396e+04
2025-09-21 73.319497 120.683796 210.696701 419.475201 995.007703 3.048348e+03 1.797243e+04
2025-09-28 66.959897 112.408481 201.396755 416.820934 1052.028308 3.599867e+03 2.824324e+04
2025-10-05 65.034405 112.169757 208.362518 455.796716 1261.137301 5.138607e+03 6.848091e+04
2025-10-12 62.603022 110.543395 212.004390 487.647272 1471.721987 7.167946e+03 1.886441e+05
2025-10-19 59.812609 107.776109 212.552371 511.379740 1673.218258 9.748906e+03 6.361833e+05
2025-10-26 56.428020 103.541207 209.454033 525.390707 1858.039162 1.304163e+04 3.412075e+06
2025-11-02 52.836180 98.431099 203.433336 528.923318 2004.322099 1.681534e+04 4.935474e+07
2025-11-09 48.940300 92.199254 193.623710 517.261115 2068.244080 2.012063e+04 1.444895e+11
2025-11-16 45.377524 86.316723 183.806210 502.891849 2110.295444 2.363987e+04 NaN
2025-11-23 42.172079 80.902563 174.406213 487.454638 2137.587888 2.742676e+04 NaN
2025-11-30 41.751583 81.771928 181.705532 535.776225 2634.195118 4.990196e+04 NaN
2025-12-07 39.776657 78.799475 178.089195 541.355954 2848.053190 7.001700e+04 NaN
2025-12-14 38.435644 77.184446 178.017117 561.596161 3217.228546 1.142339e+05 NaN
2025-12-21 36.476386 73.880379 172.610833 557.726690 3381.032128 1.578833e+05 NaN
2025-12-28 36.316678 74.959619 180.240313 614.828603 4258.865203 4.306611e+05 NaN
2026-01-04 35.794235 75.073351 185.023861 661.925439 5187.402118 1.364023e+06 NaN